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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple script. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and longtime underperformers rising collectively. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical year!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still